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Exploration at FAN South and SNE North (formerly Sirius) could add incrementally, although time to develop these potential tie-ins to a core SNE development will mean that a marked increase in value is unlikely, we think.
0p the talos principle update#
We expect a reserves update in August after the results of the interference testing at SNE-6 are fully interpreted, which will inform how the upper reservoirs (which hold a majority of OIP but have produced the lower test rates so far) are best exploited. We believe the analysis indicates few major avenues for investors to see step-change upside in the asset other than reserves upgrades and successful exploration. Unsurprisingly, these give a range of values. How should we approach a valuation of the assets? We review a number of approaches to give indications of value from invested capital to implied values from pure-play peers. The consortium has drilled multiple exploration and appraisal wells since and Cairn has given indications of a development concept based on its current 2C reserves estimate.
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The discoveries of FAN-1 and SNE-1 in October and November 2014 (40% WI) respectively, were a high point for exploration in that year (FAN was the largest discovery globally). Tax claim on Cairn India - assume overall to be half of total stake valueĬosts to litigate Indian tax case (2017/18) Below we show NAV performance without the Cairn India stake (given that the value of this is uncertain and heavily discounted in the share price at the moment).ĭividends from Cairn India/Vedanta to be released – risked and discounted We believe this has the potential to change in 2017 and onwards. This meant that the NAV/share from 2013-16 was relatively flat, unsurprisingly producing relatively damped share price performance. In transitioning to a more balanced E&P with production, development and exploration, the company has invested a great deal, the result being a reduction in cash that has not as yet been fully compensated for by increase in value from production cash flows. In previous years, the company valuation has been dominated by the cash and Cairn India stake. Equally, the shares have not been a great absolute investment over recent years, not helped by the ongoing Indian tax challenge. Continued abuse of our services will cause your IP address to be blocked indefinitely.Cairn’s share price has been far more stable than many of its peers in recent quarters, avoiding the turmoil caused by the financial distress of low oil prices. Please fill out the CAPTCHA below and then click the button to indicate that you agree to these terms. If you wish to be unblocked, you must agree that you will take immediate steps to rectify this issue.
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